By: Pat Rogge and Adam Rogers
After a brief interlude to have a baby and then get
caught up with work, the blog is back up and running for the last few weeks of the year,
bringing you the mid-season review.
Yakety Sax:
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| Again, you have to imagine the music playing in the background. |
The Yackety Sackers have been one of the most dominant
teams in the league up to this point. With a 16 game lead on the second place
DL All-Stars going into the break, Rob’s team is set up to coast into the
playoffs, though a 20-15-1 record over the three weeks going into the All-Star
break would suggest they don’t show any signs of slowing down. Perhaps
unsurprising for a team that had Edwin Encarnacion for most of the early
stages, they have dominated the power hitting statistics while competing
aggressively in the counting pitching stats through a strong staff and some
effective streaming. In what may be a preview of the league championship, they
managed to knock off Bowling Overhand in week 15, so keep an eye on them going
forward.
MVP: Jose Abreu. He only leads MLB in HRs and has a
legitimate shot at breaking the record for rookie HRs (49). If the White Sox
weren’t so bad he would be in the discussion for league MVP. “On pace for” is
one of the least productive sayings around, but his pace is 50+HR, 130+RBI and
will likely cruise to the rookie of the year, despite being 27 with a decade of
(semi) professional baseball under his belt.
LVP: Eric Hosmer. What is going on with the Royals at
1B/DH? Hosmer, a perennial candidate to be a breakout star has never lived up
to his vast potential. His .268/3/42
slash is pretty feeble through 94 games for a power hitting, middle of the
order basher. Other LVP candidates Carlos Santana and Khris Davis have at least
hit 14 and 15 HRs, respectively and have shown spurts of life during the
season. Hosmer is being punished here since he has by far the most talent of
the bunch and he the most important to his team.
Likely to Surge: Hosmer. He is too good to be this
mediocre this long. The Royals need him to pick it up and I think he’ll end up
with something resembling .285/15/95.
Likely to Crash: Victor Martinez. Martinez has been
better than he ever has been with a long run of more HRs than Ks. However, his
issue has always been injuries and he has started to get banged up as the
season goes along. His numbers will be hurt by in inevitable DL stint in the
back half.
Draft Stud: Anthony Rendon. You don’t often find an All
Star in round 20, but that’s where Rendon was. Pretty good half of a season for
a guy who barely won his job in spring, which is ridiculous looking back on it.
Draft Dud: 2 strong candidates here, but the nod goes to
Shin-soo Choo. Choo has been a disaster at the top of the order for the last
place Rangers. A 4th rounder who is a fantasy free agent? The
epitome of a dud.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Best move in the league: Jose
Abreu. In a deal that will go down in infamy with the Josh Reddick/Hanley
Ramirez deal of a year ago, Abreu was acquired for Colby Rasmus. Hindsight is
20/20 and all of that, etc.
DL All Stars:
Coming into the season, the DLA were considered a marked
team by all of us who have suffered through season after season of post-season
futility against them. Putting together a 23-12-1 record during the last three
weeks, DLA showed why they’re the other team in the “decent team from the AL”
group, but their statlines show they haven’t really dominated in any one area. Their
pitching has gone the other way from the consensus method used by the other
three playoff teams, focusing on strong ERA and WHIP while not streaming for
the strong counting stats. Their hitting is built around power at the expense
of OBP and speed, but may suffer in the remaining weeks with Tulo hitting the
DL on a Rockies team with no motivation to hurry him back. The results have
been good enough to get them into the post-season as things stand, but they’re
going to have to find some of the old magic if they’re going to find their way
out of the first round.
MVP: Troy Tulowitzki. So this is what happens when he
stays healthy. Despite splits that cause you to wonder if the humidor is
broken, he has been on a tear in the 1st half. A clear cut NL MVP at
the break, he has 71 R, 21 HRs, a .435 OBP and a .636 SLG.
LVP: Jay Bruce: He has been hot as of late, and he needed
it. After a long flirtation with the dreaded Mendoza line, Bruce has finally
carried his average all the way up to .229. This, combined with a month long
vaction on the DL, has left Bruce with nothing at all close to what the Reds
were expecting. His average over the last 15 games? .167. Yikes.
Likely to Surge: Starling Marte. After a dreadful start
at the plate, Marte has turned it around big time. Hitting between Gregory
Polanco and Andrew McCutcheon has been good to Marte.
Likely to Crash: Julio Teheran. He sputtered into the
break with 3 straight non-QS and has been shaky with his control and location
for the last couple weeks. Teheran might be on the verge of going completely
off the rails.
Draft Stud: Rick Porcello. Drafted in the 21st
round, Porcello nearly made the All Star team. With a low 3s ERA and a couple
CGs (one of them a shutout) he has been nothing short of an amazing value for
that late in the draft.
Draft Dud: Wow. Two candidates in a heated competition.
However, I am awarding this category to Allen Craig over Wil Myers. Craig (who
is also a free agent) has been completely awful for this entire season. His
slash line is something more than a few pitchers would shake their heads at.
The reason he didn’t win this easily was…
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Allen Craig for Christian
Yelich. After giving up on Craig, the DLAS somehow managed to turn him into one
of (if not the) best leadoff men in the NL. Yelich is showing that he is really
the 5 tool, 22 year old phenom that is part of the best OF in all of baseball. Special
Consideration was giving to the free agency pickup of Matt Adams, who has been
white hot. In the last 30 days Adams has a .351 OBP, 7 HRs, 23 RBIs and a .606
SLG.
Fightin’ Vizquels/Yo Quiero Taco Bell:
Named for their statement first round draft pick, the
Fightin’ Vizquels have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled down the
stretch. Posting a 24-12 record in the last three weeks, they definitely seem
to be surging, albeit too late in the year to probably make the post-season.
The victories they’ve put together thus far are likely the result of favorable
timing/inconsistent performance, as they’re currently in the bottom half of the
league in all stats outside of stolen bases. The newly crowned Yo Quiero Taco Bell
team will need to find some consistency to help set themselves up in the
consolation bracket.
MVP: Adam Wainwright. The ASG starter has a sub 2 ERA and
has been nothing short of completely dominant in the 1st half. While
I didn’t agree with his starting of the ASG, I also can’t fault the decision.
His stuff has been electric.
LVP: Dustin Pedroia. While his numbers aren’t bad, per se, he has an MVP under his
belt so I am singling him out. Career worst numbers in SLG and OPS are not
exactly stats to write home about. The Red Sox are crashing hard and Pedroia is
not helping the cause.
Likely to Surge: Robinson Cano. Cano’s power numbers are
way down as he might have underestimated the power of Safeco Field. He also
might have not seen the As having the best staff in the majors (don’t forget 2
of their better starters in AJ Griffin and Jarrod Parker are out for the
season) in his division. Either way I think Cano will bust out in the 2nd
half and be more of the Cano we all know.
Likely to Crash: Lonnie Chisenhall. While known more for
his historic 3 HR, 9 RBI game, he had a 1st half that was very
solid. It also came out of nowhere, for the most part. Much like poor Jeff Locke
last season, a guy with no history of success generally doesn’t keep it going
for 162 games.
Draft Stud: Huston Street. A 17th rounder,
Street has been lights out in the back of the Padres’ bullpen. With 24 saves
and an ERA barely over 1.00, he has been extremely good for a very bad team.
Draft Dud: With special acknowledgment of team mascot
Omar Vizquel, drafted in round 1 despite being a coach on the Detroit staff,
this “honor” goes to Pedroia in the 3rd round. As mentioned before,
he has not exactly been a 3rd round talent.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Plucking Chisenhall and
Charlie Blackmon off the free agent wire has helped this team immensely.
Regardless of whether or not they keep it going, this team has gotten
tremendous value out of guys who cost nothing to acquire.
The Evil Empire:
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| The face of Jeter has turned from us in shame. |
Well, what can we say? This team has really struggled. It
could be author bias, but I think the team has suffered from a combination of
bad luck and players not living up to expectations. The only chance to get back
to .500 on the year was to surge during the last three weeks while playing
other lower-tier teams, but a 13-20-1 record was not getting it done. Contrary
to pre-season predictions, the team has been strong in runs scored and OBP, and
has done well with Saves (though, paradoxically, somehow is dead last in K/9
despite rostering an average of 4 closers every week since opening day.) Their
real problem has been finishing in the middle of the pack in basically every
other category, leading to a lot of close losses and making it tough to find
wins.
MVP: Brandon Moss. Encarnacion would be a good choice
here but 1) he is injured and 2) he hasn’t been on this team long enough to
really be its MVP. Moss has 21 HRs and 66 RBIs with a SLG in the .500s. He is
also the middle of the order masher of the best team in all of baseball. While
the Empire has underperformed, it’s certainly not Moss’s fault.
LVP: Grant Balfour. He is no longer on the roster, but
while he was he did anything but a bang up job. Dumped for Alfredo Simon before
being jettisoned to the waiver wire, Balfour lost his job in the Ray’s bullpen
and repeatedly blew up the Empire ERA. As for current players, this dubious
award would go to Desmond Jennings, who has been erratic at best.
Likely to Surge: Evan Longoria. Longoria has been very
mediocre in the 1st half of the season. With just 11 HRs despite no
trips to the DL, I expect him to pick it up in a big way in the 2nd
half. He’ll never hit for average, but right now he is barely hitting at all.
That won’t last.
Likely to Crash: Marlon Byrd. Byrd has been hitting
everything he sees recently, most of them out of the park. However, eventually
being Marlon Byrd will catch up to him and his extraordinarily high K:BB ratio
will make it hard to keep the pace up.
Draft Stud: Todd Frazier. No longer on the roster,
Frazier was a 24th round pick. All he did was make the ASG at 3b and
participate in the HR derby. Frazier might be one of the best last picks in the
draft we have ever had.
Draft Dud: Mike Minor. No longer on the roster, Minor was
quite a stretch in a single digit round that also included Josh Hamilton and
Anthony Rizzo.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Losing Todd Frazier is a bit
of a black mark on the empire. However, the extremely good Simon/Balfour deal
mitigates some of the losses. While giving up Frazier, he turned around and
picked up an all star starter for a guy who would only end up closing for about
another week or so.
Royal Rooters:
It’s been rough sledding for the Royal Rooters. Finishing
dead last in most offensive and some pitching categories pretty much tells the
tale. They do not appear to be actively curated at the moment, so we’ll just
move on with the analysis.
MVP: Brian Dozier. While I looked long and hard at the
aforementioned Frazier, Dozier has been by far the best player on the Twins
team. 18 HRs and 16 steals at the break from your 2B is pretty impressive.
Right now its Dozier, not Cano or Pedroia, who is the best in the league at the
position.
LVP: Shelby Miller. Miller has not been the guy the Cards
thought he was going to be at all. He managed to record 109 IP before the
break, but his job is anything but secure. Enersto Frieri was also strongly
considered for this spot as he lost his job and was part of one of the least
significant deals this season when he was sent to the steel city for their
closer who had lost his job.
Likely to Surge: Adrian Gonzalez. Despite hitting as the
meat of a Yasiel Puig-Hanley Ramirez-Matt Kemp sandwich, AGon has just been bad
by his standards. His OBP is barely over .300 and his Ks are way up. Even with
the shift causing him fits, I expect he will turn it around soon. Too much
talent in that lineup to continue to put up the poor numbers he has.
Likely to Crash: Dozier. He has been playing out of his
mind and I expect some regression to his mean in the 2nd half. He is
still one of the better 2B in the AL, but he has been putting up Cano’s usual
numbers and I don’t see that quite continuing.
Draft Stud: Howie Kendrick. A 23rd round pick,
Kendrick has been extremely good for that far down in the draft. You can’t go
wrong with a guy 3 picks from the end that has an OBP of .348 and is on pace to
score about 85-90 runs.
Draft Dud: Ernesto Frieri. Round 9 will always be too
high for a CP in my opinion, but it’s extra painful considering he was drafted
in a round that contained Masahiro Tanaka and Manny Machado. He had also lost
his job each of the last 2 seasons, so it’s not like it came out of nowhere.
Free Agency/Trade Overview. Abreu/Rasmus is the deal all
future deals will be judged against, for better or worse. A close 2nd
will be the Angel Pagan/Edwin Encarnacion deal. Fantasy baseball league growing
pains is what we have here.
The National League
Bowling Overhand:
The flip-side of the domination the league has seen this
year comes from Joe’s Most Interesting Team In The World™. They lead the league
with a 112-55-1 record after the break, but stumbled going in with losses to
likely post-season opponents Danger Zone and Yackety Sax. It’s tough to find a
category where they aren’t competitive (if not flat out dominant) making it no
surprise to also find them at the top of the Roto standings. Pair that up with
a big injection of talent with a post-ASG trade that left many eyebrows raised and
heads scratched around the league, and this team seems unstoppable. Which
means, of course, that they’ll likely be knocked out in the first round of the
playoffs.
MVP: Clayton Kershaw. The guy who should have started the
ASG for the NL, Kershaw only put up 41 scoreless IP before finally surrendering
a single run. With an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00, Kershaw has been on
a historically good run. This also brings up how absurd Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA
is. And why they changed the mound after those shenanigans.
LVP: Jason Kipnis. Like Pedroia previously, Kipnis is
being hung out to dry here because he is not even coming remotely close to his
talent level. With all of 3 HRs and a feeble .350 SLG (with a 6 week stay on
the DL), Kipnis has a WAR of 1.0. One game over the value of a AAA player?
Sounds like a guy who started the ASG a year ago to me!
Likely to Surge: Shin-shoo Choo. Whatever is currently
malfunctioning in Choo’s brain is likely to get fixed sometime during this
season. While he will never be confused with a star player, Choo didn’t
suddenly forget how to hit. It doesn’t help that the Rangers ended up with the
worst record in baseball at the break, but Choo didn’t do himself any favors by
being yanked out of the leadoff spot for no production either.
Likely to Crash: I would consider Steve Pearce or Josh
Harrison, but neither of those guys will be on this team for more than a week
or two. That being said, Dee Gordon becomes the “winner” for his category.
Gordon will always be a SB threat, but that requires getting on base, something
Gordon has never really done in his career. His .344 OBP is probably looking at
a 45-50 point drop.
Draft Stud: Gordon. Drafted with just 2 more rounds left
in the draft, Gordon has 43 steals at the break.
Draft Dud: Martin Prado. Jose Fernandez was a candidate
for this spot simply because he didn’t last long this season, but Prado wins
for consistent failure. Prado was never a great player, but this season he was
not even a serviceable one.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Getting David Price and Jeff
Samardzija to add to a staff that already has King Felix and Kershaw makes
pitching stats a punt while facing Overhand. However, losing Matt Adams to free
agency and trading Yelich for the disaster of Allen Craig did not help
offensively. Look for BO to move some arms for some bats during his half.
Danger Zone:
Kenny Loggins would be proud of the high-risk high-reward
strategies employed by the Danger Zone on a week-to-week basis. No surprise to
anyone who has played other games with Matt, he isn’t afraid to go where others
fear to tread, and it’s rewarded him this season with a third place spot going
into the break. Backed up with a streaming strategy supported by XFIP and other
top-end metrics, many opponents have found themselves looking up at an
unmatchable IP number and wondering how their ERA could be so low with that
many streamers. A 20-15-1 record in the last three weeks came from a win over
Bowling Overhand but a loss against the DLA. Their offensive stats fall into
the middle of the pack, with Billy Hamilton leading them to a dominant 1st
place in stolen bases. It is no surprise to find them at the top of the
non-save pitching counting stats. Lending credence to his methods, he is also
in the top 3 for ERA and WHIP despite being far and away the most aggressive
streamer in the league. As usual, Matt’s team is set up to be a wild-card in
the post season, and is equally likely to win it all as burn out gloriously.
MVP: Mike Trout. He showed he was human when he was
hitting .188 for a couple week stretch in May, but after that Trout has been
Trout and finished off the 1st half with an ASG MVP trophy after
hitting a couple rockets in that game off of stacked NL staff.
LVP: Joe Mauer. Another former MVP, Mauer has been a
pitiful 1B based on stats alone. SLG, isolated power, RBIs, HRs, all very, very
low for the position. He has not lived up to his contract by any measure and it
is that contract that is badly hurting the small market twins.
Likely to Surge: Mauer. Another guy who didn’t suddenly
forget how to hit the ball, Mauer should at least start racking up some extra
base hits and drive in some runs when he returns from the DL.
Likely to Crash: JD Martinez. Martinez couldn’t even
manage to stay on the MLB club in Houston so his rise has come out of nowhere.
I expect he’ll be back to the norm as the 2nd half progresses but
remain on the Tigers since they are one of the worst teams in the outfield.
Draft Stud: Jon Lester. A sub 3.00 ERA for a guy drafted
142nd overall is very good value. Lester has been more like himself
from a few years ago when he was one of the better pitchers in the AL.
Draft Dud: Mauer, again. I’m piling on a bit here, but
Mauer has been nothing short of a total failure since moving to 1B.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: As usual, the DZ was
extremely active with an even 100 moves so far this season. Giving up on Evan
Longoria and sending him to the Empire might come back to haunt the DZ as the
season goes on as 3b is left to the past his prime Aramis Ramirez, Nolan
Arenado and Chris Johnson.
Cleveland Wahoos:
The winner of the St. Louis Maroons award for the first
two years of the league, the Wahoos find themselves in the unfamiliar position
of looking at the post-season from the outside going into the break. A 14-22-1
record in the last 3 weeks sort of underscores their difficulties thus far.
Cargo’s lack of…Cargo-ness hasn’t helped matters. Pitching has proven to be a
strength for the Wahoos, though perhaps not to the degree that it has been for
some of the other teams. The men from Cleveland do well in OBP and SLG, but are
in the bottom half for most of the counting stats on the offensive side. Look
for them to do well in the consolation bracket and set themselves up for a
strong 2015 season.
MVP: In a close competition between Carlos Gomez and
Yaisel Puig, I’m giving the nod to Gomez. With numbers very similar to Puig, he
has done it without the help of the Dodgers lineup. Gomez has probably been the
best leadoff hitter in the NL on a surprising Brewers team.
LVP: Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo hasn’t been himself for the 1st
half. He has been banged up pretty often and is hitting just .258 despite
playing more than half of his games in Coors Field at this point.
Likely to Surge: Gonzalez. If he stays on the field,
batting next to Tulowitzki can’t hurt. Also he is far too talented to hit under
.260 with 8 HRs in 209 ABs. He’ll pick it up during this half.
Likely to Crash: Corey Dickerson. Someone apparently body
swapped Dickerson and CarGo. Dickerson is a good, young talent but he isn’t a
guy capable of a .391 OBP with a SLG north of .500. He’ll see some regression
during this half.
Draft Stud: Johnny Cueto. This was the easiest selection
of all. Cueto has been better than he never has after apparently we all gave up
on him before the draft. He might be the best late round steal we have ever
had, frankly.
Draft Dud: Alex Rios. While he is a starting OF in any
format, he probably isn’t a 6th round value. Rios has just 4 HRs and
seemingly everyone on the Rangers is either having a career worst year, injured
or some combination of the two.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Picking up unknowns Zack
Britton, Brock Holt and Corey Dickerson has been a huge bonus for the Wahoos.
However, no longer having Brian Dozier has left a giant hole at 2b for this
team. That was probably a move he would like to have back.
Deathvalley Demons:
As stated a few weeks ago by the commish, on paper this
team should be doing much better than their record would indicate. They won
more than they lost in the last three weeks, feasting on some of the lower end
teams in the league. Despite the number of big names on their roster, the team
has failed to get above the middle of the pack in any statistical category.
Despite this, they were selected as the most likely team of the non-playoff
squads to find their way into the final four. The team should look to focus on
their strengths to either make a big push at the end or finish strong in the
consolation ladder.
MVP: Nelson Cruz. Someone better check to see if he has
been back to Biogenesis. He is 2nd in the AL in HRs, leads the
league in RBIs, while hitting .287 and SLG .570. The Orioles will eventually
win the train wreck that is the AL East and Cruz will be a huge part of why.
LVP: Homer Bailey. Homer has turned into Homer Run Bailey
during a pretty disastrous 1st half. His ERA is currently over 4.00
and a WHIP over 1.3 Not what you want to see when you play in a bandbox like
Great American Ballpark.
Likely to Surge: Aaron Hill. He has done little right so
far this season. However, he plays in a hitter friendly park and the DBacks
just got Trumbo back in the lineup. I expect a 15 or so point gain in average
and some increased power in the 2nd half.
Likely to Crash: Nelson Cruz. Crash might be a bit harsh,
but Cruz is not going to hit 50 HRs and drive in 130. I just don’t see that
happening. Not that a 35 HR, 110 RBI season is anything to scoff at, but to
keep on the pace he is now is probably out of the question.
Draft Stud: Cruz. We all dropped the ball pretty badly on
him after his 50 game suspension a year ago.
Draft Dud: Prince Fielder. Drafted in round 2, Fielder
was less than fantastic before a season ending injury wiped him out for 2014.
Getting virtually no value out of a pick in the 1st 2 rounds is a
team killer.
Free Agency/Trade Overview: Picking up Anthony Rizzo has
mitigated the loss of Fielder about as well as one could possibly expect.
Adding SPs Nathan Eovaldi and Jesse Chavez have bolstered the staff.
No Idea:
Team No Idea goes into the All-Star Break in the bottom
half of most statistical categories, underscoring the struggles they’ve had so
far. Bolstered by Mark Buehrle’s uncharacteristic performance this year but
anchored down by Chris Davis’s disappearance, chances aren’t good that the team
can put it together to win a post-season slot. However, this also means the
team is likely in a good position to compete in the Roto format of the
consolation ladder with some improvement in their strong categories.
MVP: Giancarolo Stanton. Stanton is tied for the NL lead
in HRs and has raised his average to .295. Also there is not a player in
baseball that has his power. His 494ft ball sent into orbit is the longest HR
in the majors this season.
LVP: Joe Nathan. A guy with his history shouldn’t be
precariously hanging onto his closer job, but such is the case with Nathan. He
would have been removed already if the Tigers had another option, which is why
they signed Nathan last year. Ironic.
Likely to Surge: Chris Davis. Davis isn’t a consistent 50
HR guy, but he isn’t as bad as he has been so far this season. The O’s will
need Davis to pick it up to hold off the Blue Jays for the East title and Davis
will likely answer the bell.
Likely to Crash: Mark Buehrle. The metrics have him has
an average pitcher at best. Somehow he is off to a 2.64 ERA through 94 games
because of some sort of pitching voodoo. Look for him to gain a half an ERA
point or so. Still a good season, just not this good.
Draft Stud: Buehrle. That being said, he was a major
steal near the very end of the draft. Panda Sandoval was another option as he
has been good and drafted in the round after Buehrle.
Draft Dud: Matt Carpenter. Moving to his natural position
of 3b hasn’t helped him like they thought, obviously. A 4th round pick in a
round with King Felix, Buster Posey Adam Wainwright and David Ortiz, Carpenter
hasn’t exactly been on that level. That round did also include Choo, Mauer and
Ian Desmond so apparently quite a few of us made questionable decisions in
hindsight.
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