Offensive Overview:
The strength of the Demons is around the edges and in the outfield. Likely the premier fantasy catcher in the game (Yadier Molina) is flanked on the edges by Fielder, playing in HR friendly Arlington, and Mr Met David Wright. In the OF, 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutcheon (who might be even better this season) is with solid performers Nelson Cruz and Alfonso Soriano, back in the pinstripes again after nearly a decade away from the Bronx. Up the middle could be an issue. Chase Utley is no longer the offensive force he was and Villar and Miller are trying to win jobs at SS in Houston and Seattle, respectively.
Offensive Production:
OPB will be a real struggle for the Demons. Free swingers abound, led by Starling Marte (0:9 BB:K ratio this spring), Miller (who might very well lose his job to Nick Franklin, who is a vastly superior offensive player forced out of his 2B spot by Cano) and Villar, who is currently hitting at the bottom of the Astros order and will likely have a sub .300 OBP with few scoring chances. Runs might also be at a premium with Marte the only leadoff hitter on the squad as of now.
X Factor:
Josh Reddick: Hey, remember me? An All Star in 2012 and an All Suck in 2013 (who I still feel bad for trading, along with Paul Maholm for Hanley Ramirez on the 2nd day of the season last year), Reddick has the talent to hit 30+ HRs and drive in 75 or so Rs.
Pitching Overview:
A strong group of quality SPs here. Latos is dinged up and will likely not appear until mid/late April, but David Price, Zack (also dinged up) Greinke and Stephen Strasburgh will be a fearsome 1-3 punch. Andrew Cashner throws 100mph and in Petco and Jeff Samardzija are some big upside guys. The bullpen will be the question as Greg Holland is a stud, but Casey Janssen had some rough stretches last year and Jose Veras I don’t see hanging to the CP role for a full season.
X Factor:
Stephen Strasburg: this might seem like a strange pick, but Strasburg had a very up and downyear last season. Perpetually saddled with absurdly low pitch counts, his QS totals suffer from the dreaded 5 IP start. I think Matt Williams will actually let the guy pitch and Strasburg might even get 200 IP this season. Unless, of course, his wonky delivery knocks him to the DL again.
Team No Idea
Offensive Overview:
Like many teams, stronger around the outside than up the middle. That being said, not many better leadoff hitters in the game than the Cards’ Matt Carpenter. Always underrated Ben Zobrist, who plays about every position and isn’t flashy, will fill the stat sheet about everywhere. Where this team will need to be strong is the corners. Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez are mashers who won’t get on base that often, but when they do they will probably drive in a few runs and take more than a few slow trots around the bases. The outfield might be a concern outside of Adam Jones, Austin Jackson and Giancarlo Stanton.
Offensive Production:
No Idea will be trying to score a bunch of runs and hit some HRs. SBs will probably be down with only Everth Cabrera and Adam Eaton as the true threats there. RBIs should be decent, provided Chris Davis continues to be like he was last year, as there are some good RBI guys with Stanton, Jones, Alvarez Kung Fu Panda and Nick Swisher. SLG will need to have the bashers balance out guys like Eaton and Cabrera, who rarely hit the ball out of the yard.
X Factor:
Adam Eaton: a big part of the deal that sent Trumbo to AZ, Addison Reed to AZ, Tyler Skaggs to LAA and prospect Matt Davidson to CHW, Eaton never managed to be what the Dbacks envisioned him to be. Leading off (with fellow youngsters Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu hitting behind him the order), Eaton might explode for 100 R.
Pitching Overview:
CP strong for No Idea. One of the side effects of the DLAS punting closer for the 2nd year in a row is many teams have a strong backend. Two of the very best in Craig Kimbel and Joe Nathan here. 40+ SV in the bank for those 2 guys, provided they stay healthy. Papelbon isn’t even close to worth the amount of money the Phillies threw at him but is still a CP with total job security. This team will likely struggle at SP. CJ Wilson hasn’t been what the LAA wanted an Buehrle is quickly coming up on the end of his run. NI is looking at a high WHIP.
X Factor:
Masahiro Tanaka: With Japanese pitchers, you never know exactly what you are going to get. While he isn’t Yu Darvish, he should be a solid #3 or (more likely) #2 for the Yankees. Hitters will adjust, as he needs look no farther than Yu’s rookie season. He will have more ups than downs, likely.
Bowling Overhand
Offensive Overview:
BO is very strong along the right side of the IF. Goldschmidt/Adams/Kipnis is very similar to the DLAS IF of Pujols/Craig/Kinsler. The left side of the IF (and especially at SS) could be a bit of an adventure, but I don’t expect that issue to linger long. Josh Donaldson is the only batter the A’s have that bothers to get on base frequently and Prado is currently hitting cleanup for the Dbacks, although that will likely change. The OF is full of upside guys, but we will have to see if the rigors of every day catching ends up wearing on Gattis. The Royals have Gordon as a middle of the order guy now, but I’d like to see him move back up to the #2 slot behind Aoki.
Offensive Production:
This will be a very balanced team. Outside of SBs (which is a lost art in the MLB these days. Gone are the days of 60+ steals from 3-4 guys in the league) BO will be competitive across the board. Gattis and Dee Gordon (provided he beats Justin Turner and Alexandr Guerrero for 2b) are the only 2 guys who will drag down OBP. BO might have the highest SLG in the league and be very near the top in HRs. The offense here won’t wow anyone, but with the staff he has assembled on the mound, just needs to steal a stat or 2 for a winning week.
X Factor:
Kole Calhoun: From off the bench to the top of the LAA lineup (check out the guys hitting behind him, in this order: Mike Trout – Albert Pujols – Josh Hamilton – David Freese) Calhoun could be a huge breakout player this season. His spot up there could just be spring tinkering, but if it isn’t he might be a steal.
Pitching Overview:
The best starting staff in the league. The ridiculously talented group of Jose Fernandez (odds on favorite to win the Cy Young in ’14), Clayton Kershaw (who won it in’13), James Shields (who plays the Twins and their AL worst – yes, even with Houston – lineup for 5-6 starts), and Felix Hernandez. If Cole Hamels returns to anything resembling his former self, good luck winning manypitching stats here.
X Factor:
Which brings up the X Factor, Cole Hamels. If Hamels is Hamels again, BO might have 5 of the top 15 or so arms in the entire league.
Mike Ehrman-Trout
Offensive Overview:
A much different approach to the offensive side of things this year from this team. In previous years, this was a power team that tried to gorilla ball their way to victory. Not so, this season. Structurally, a team built very similar to the DLAS: a strong IF and a couple strong OFs hoping to carry the rest. The left side of the IF is about as good as it gets. Segura/Castro/Longoria will put up numbers, unless injuries get in the way. Trout and Braun are OF monsters. A few questions come up outside of those players. Billy Hamilton needs to prove he can get on base (the same for Rajai Davis). Seager is hitting behind Cano, but there isn’t anyone of value behind him. Carlos Beltran is playing in Yankee Stadium, but eventually age will find him.
Offensive Production:
Speed here. Scoring runs and stealing bases. Even with Mauer and Trout, OPB will likely be one of the lower ones in the league. With only Longoria and Braun as middle of the order run producers, RBIs might also lag some. Beltran is hitting 3rd in NYY, which is normally fantastic. However, this might be the worst offensive team in the Bronx in a generation.
X Factor:
Starlin Castro: Castro was terrible in 2013. However, if he is healthy and as productive as he was in ’11 and ’12, he will be a major contributor. He strikes out a bunch and never walks, but Castro has a chance to score runs, get some RBI and SBs. Right now he is dealing with a bad hamstring, which isn’t the news you want to hear in March.
Pitching Overview:
As is also usually the case here, pitching will be very exciting. Another team with the 1 token closer, this is a pretty stark mix of aging veterans and young talent. Wacha was impressive as a rookie, but will likely only throw 170 or so IP this season before a shutdown. Tony Cingrani might share a similar fate. With 3 Red Sox starters, MET is hoping for a down year offensively in the AL East. This team might have some ERA issues during weeks vs BAL, TOR, and TB. Should have a pretty good QS total, but WHIP projections are alarmingly high and K/9 might be on the low side.
Offensive Overview:
A much different approach to the offensive side of things this year from this team. In previous years, this was a power team that tried to gorilla ball their way to victory. Not so, this season. Structurally, a team built very similar to the DLAS: a strong IF and a couple strong OFs hoping to carry the rest. The left side of the IF is about as good as it gets. Segura/Castro/Longoria will put up numbers, unless injuries get in the way. Trout and Braun are OF monsters. A few questions come up outside of those players. Billy Hamilton needs to prove he can get on base (the same for Rajai Davis). Seager is hitting behind Cano, but there isn’t anyone of value behind him. Carlos Beltran is playing in Yankee Stadium, but eventually age will find him.
Offensive Production:
Speed here. Scoring runs and stealing bases. Even with Mauer and Trout, OPB will likely be one of the lower ones in the league. With only Longoria and Braun as middle of the order run producers, RBIs might also lag some. Beltran is hitting 3rd in NYY, which is normally fantastic. However, this might be the worst offensive team in the Bronx in a generation.
X Factor:
Starlin Castro: Castro was terrible in 2013. However, if he is healthy and as productive as he was in ’11 and ’12, he will be a major contributor. He strikes out a bunch and never walks, but Castro has a chance to score runs, get some RBI and SBs. Right now he is dealing with a bad hamstring, which isn’t the news you want to hear in March.
Pitching Overview:
As is also usually the case here, pitching will be very exciting. Another team with the 1 token closer, this is a pretty stark mix of aging veterans and young talent. Wacha was impressive as a rookie, but will likely only throw 170 or so IP this season before a shutdown. Tony Cingrani might share a similar fate. With 3 Red Sox starters, MET is hoping for a down year offensively in the AL East. This team might have some ERA issues during weeks vs BAL, TOR, and TB. Should have a pretty good QS total, but WHIP projections are alarmingly high and K/9 might be on the low side.
X Factor:
Bartolo Colon: after a great season last year, during which Fatolo had been suspended for a PED violation, Colon moved to the place where hitters go to die: Citi Field. The rigors of a new league and having to bat will likely affect his stats. The NL East is a bit offensively challenged, especially compared to the 2013 AL West, so that might help balance out what will likely be a bit of a regression to his norm this season.
Cleveland Wahoos
Offensive Overview: The 2 time league regular season champs have the best OF in the league and it probably isn’t close. If Ellsbury stays on the field and Puig doesn’t Puig his way out of the lineup when Crawford returns (Kemp will be in the lineup on opening day), this lineup is extremely strong in the OF. The infield is also very solid, with Brandon Phillips and Ian Desmond making a great middle combination and basher JJ Hardy giving rare power numbers from a SS. Chris Carter has some help in the Astros lineup now hitting behind Dexter Fowler and he could have a very good year. One glaring issue could be the unemployed Kendrys Morales, who is looking to wait until after the June draft to sign now.
Offensive Production:
HRs and SBs a plenty for the Wahoos. While Rs might be a bit down with only Ellsbury and Puig as top of the order guys and RBIs might suffer a bit from having just Carlos Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips as proven run producers, this team will be very competitive across the board. A challenger for the SLG title from BO is a real possibility.
X Factor:
Xander Bogaerts: after an outstanding post season, Bogaerts now has the SS job locked own in Boston. A gigantic upgrade over Stephen Drew, and now playing his natural position after being forced into a 3B role last season, Bogaerts will be making a big push in the Red Sox lineup that might need him to produce to repeat.
Pitching Overview:
A rare pitching heavy team carrying just 1 bench offensive player, this is a team that is going to try to chew up some innings. Cobb, Masterson, Scherzer, Cole and Bumgarner is a very good rotation. The bullpen could be something of a work in progress. Johnson nearly lost his job several times in ’13, Rodney is not exactly on solid ground with Danny Farquhar waiting to try to take the job and John Axford, who sort of goes without saying. Considering the nature of the job and a rough estimate of 10 closers that will lose their jobs at some point in the year (which might even be low) I expect this team to have enough starting pitching it won’t matter what the bullpen does.
Offensive Overview: The 2 time league regular season champs have the best OF in the league and it probably isn’t close. If Ellsbury stays on the field and Puig doesn’t Puig his way out of the lineup when Crawford returns (Kemp will be in the lineup on opening day), this lineup is extremely strong in the OF. The infield is also very solid, with Brandon Phillips and Ian Desmond making a great middle combination and basher JJ Hardy giving rare power numbers from a SS. Chris Carter has some help in the Astros lineup now hitting behind Dexter Fowler and he could have a very good year. One glaring issue could be the unemployed Kendrys Morales, who is looking to wait until after the June draft to sign now.
Offensive Production:
HRs and SBs a plenty for the Wahoos. While Rs might be a bit down with only Ellsbury and Puig as top of the order guys and RBIs might suffer a bit from having just Carlos Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips as proven run producers, this team will be very competitive across the board. A challenger for the SLG title from BO is a real possibility.
X Factor:
Xander Bogaerts: after an outstanding post season, Bogaerts now has the SS job locked own in Boston. A gigantic upgrade over Stephen Drew, and now playing his natural position after being forced into a 3B role last season, Bogaerts will be making a big push in the Red Sox lineup that might need him to produce to repeat.
Pitching Overview:
A rare pitching heavy team carrying just 1 bench offensive player, this is a team that is going to try to chew up some innings. Cobb, Masterson, Scherzer, Cole and Bumgarner is a very good rotation. The bullpen could be something of a work in progress. Johnson nearly lost his job several times in ’13, Rodney is not exactly on solid ground with Danny Farquhar waiting to try to take the job and John Axford, who sort of goes without saying. Considering the nature of the job and a rough estimate of 10 closers that will lose their jobs at some point in the year (which might even be low) I expect this team to have enough starting pitching it won’t matter what the bullpen does.
X Factor:
Cody Allen: When the Ax Man is the guy in front of you, better start getting ready to take over. Allen is likely going to be the man at the back of the pen sooner rather than later and could have a good year. A special X Factor note goes out to Alex Cobb, who has looked good since getting blasted in the face by a baseball a season ago.
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